May 11, 2012
“Happy are those who dream dreams and are ready to pay the
price to make them come true. “– Leon J. Suenes
Equity markets are opening soft this morning after JP Morgan
(JPM) announced a $2 billion trading loss, characterized by CEO Jamie Dimon as
“self-inflicted, egregious mistakes”. In
spite of the loss, Dimon says it doesn’t change his stance opposing the Volcker
Rule. “This portfolio has proven to be
riskier, more volatile and less effective as an economic hedge than the firm
previously believed.” “in hindsight, the
new strategy was flawed, complex, poorly reviewed, poorly executed and poorly
monitored” he said. That certainly seems
like a compelling reason to enact the Volcker Rule ASAP.
Europe! No matter how
much they try, they can’t seem to keep out of the news. The EFSF approved the release of 5.2 billion euro
to Greece, which keeps the country from defaulting on its debt
obligations. Meanwhile sovereign-wealth
fund China Investment announced that while it is still looking for
opportunities to invest in Europe, it has cut off purchases of European
government debt. “What is happening in Europe
right now is of course of concern” said the fund’s president, Gao Xiqing. The US doesn’t seem immune to this plight as
Reuters is reporting that financial advisers are increasingly avoiding US
Treasuries for their clients, opting instead for investment grade corporate and
emerging market bonds, MLPs, and preferred stocks.
The Bank of England has halted its quantitative easting
program early because inflation is proving a bigger problem than anticipated.
The US trade deficit jumped in the first quarter, suggesting
1st quarter GDP might come in lower than the initial estimate of
2.2%. The Commerce Department released
the March trade deficit, which totaled $51.8 billion in March vs. $45.4 billion
in February.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that business and consumer
lending is loosening up in the US.
Corporate bond offerings have been robust at these low interest rate levels. As an example, IBM successfully issued an
all-time low for a corporate issued seven year note at 1.875%, just 65 bps
above treasuries. He also stated that consumers
with good credit have been able to get auto loans and credit cards. What he didn’t mention is that the bulk of
the increase in consumer lending over the past three years can be attributed to
a jump in government lending to consumers, which comes in the form of student
loans. The chart below, courtesy of
Bianco Research, shows the jump in student loans outstanding.
Auto sales in the US are on track for their biggest sales
year since 2007, driven by record low financing rates and an aging fleet in
need of replacement.
China’s trade report reflected the weakening economy as
exports increased 4.9% in April, well short of the 8.5% consensus
estimate. Imports were also weaker than
expected, coming in at a 0.3% increase vs. estimates of a 10.9% increase.
The Facebook IPO is set to price next week, and demand
reportedly is building. Reuters is
reporting that institutional demand already exceeds the number of shares being
offered. I haven’t seen the roadshow
yet, but I’d expect the deal to be both upsized and the price range to be
raised on this one.
According to Gadget Lab, the latest Apple (AAPL) rumors are for
a new iPhone in September and an iPad Mini in August. AAPL hasn’t announced either, however, the
video link below demonstrates some potential new technologies for what is being
dubbed the iPhone 5. If true, it is an
incremental leap from the 4s.
Have a great weekend
Ned
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